Chercheur :

Paul Safonov

Description :

Projet financé par "Research in Brussels - 1998 : " Actions Programme of the Brussels-Capital Region Government

Résumé :

Objectives :

Aggravation of transportation intensity and air pollution in urban areas in the last decades is urging the studies on strategic environmental assessment (SEA) of transportation networks and the integration of transport-environment concerns with land-use planning.

The study tackles the environmental aspects of passenger mobility in the Brussels-Capital region. The assessment is based on the Regional Plan of Land Use ("P.R.A.S") and the Regional Plan of Mobility (Plan "IRIS") and focused on analysis of major policy options, such as residential areas and office relocation and expansion, development of transportation networks, modal shift, and other urban policies.

Strategy :

For the purposes of such analysis a system of models has been developed, including :

1) Forecasts of population and employment dynamics, in accordance to different economic and urban development scenarios. Such forecasts are based on indicators of economic development by main sectors of activities and respective demand for labor resources; trends in population dynamics and labor resources structure with respective spatial distribution in the region.

2) Mobility model, providing scenarios of public and private traffic in the region, according to different origin-destination matrices, generated on the basis of the stage 1 calculations and office stock modeling. For transportation network analysis the recent version of TRIPS package is used, which provides powerful tools for assignment and graphical presentation.

3) A model linking mobility and air pollution. The focus is mainly on local pollution of CO, NOx, VOC, and PM. Also consumption of non-renewable fuels with respective CO2 and SO2 emission is analysed. COPERT methodology (versions II and III) was used for calculation of the emission functions per kilometre driven, taking into consideration climate conditions, private cars park composition with specific speed profiles, as well as new European/Belgian regulations on vehicles (COPERT III). The emissions are calculated spatially on the transportation network as a function of the assigned traffic intensity, average speed on each link, and length of the trip (which allows considering proportion between cold start and hot emissions).

Results :

The software was developed to link the models of mobility demand, road traffic assignment (within TRIPS package), and emissions calculations. Different scenarios, mainly based on the assumptions of P.R.A.S. and Plan "IRIS" are considered, assessing the environmental impact of actual policy in regional and urban planning and possible measures in order to reduce the air pollution. The concept and preliminary results of the study have been discussed at an international conference [1]. Final report of the project is available since February 2000.

Publications :

Environmental Impacts of Mobility and Urban Policy Options: A Case Study of the Brussels-Capital Region, Safonov P., Favrel V. and Hecq W., International Symposium on Ecosystem Health, Sacramento, CA, USA, August, 1999
PDF version

Modeling Impacts of Mobility on Urban Air Quality: Scenario Analysis for the Brussels-Capital Region, Safonov P., Favrel V. and Hecq W., ISEE/RC'99 International Conference, Saratov, Russia, July 1999.


Contact : Paul Safonov

Début : décembre 1998
Fin : novembre 1999

Modelisation dynamique écologique-économique pour la plannification régionale : une étude de cas des impacts environnementaux de la mobilité, induite par des options politiques majeures dans la région de Bruxelles-Capital