Main Research Topics - Mathematical Modeling

BIOGEOCHEMICAL MODELS

Ecologically-based biogeochemical models describe carbon and associated biogenic elements cycling through aggregated chemical and biological compartments (state variables) of the aquatic ecosystem. These models result of the coupling between a physical and an ecological model.

The state variables of the ecological models are defined on a functional basis. These models are evolving conceptual tools integrating the current knowledge of ecosystem functioning. For this reason they are powerful tools for basic research pointing new research requirements as derived from both comparison between model results and observations and model sensitivity analyses.

When validated these models can be used to better understand the dynamics of the ecosystem and the related biogeochemical cycles and their response to climatic and human variability. Beside validated models can be used as prediction tool for guiding environmental management.

Main application concerns marine systems addressing coastal eutrophication and climate change related questions.

The BIOGEN model describing coastal eutrophication of the North-western Black Sea in response to change in Danube inputs has been developed in the scope of the EU-EROS project.

The MIRO&CO model describing Phaeocystis blooms in the Southern Bight of the North Sea in response to climate and nutrients changes is under development in the scope of the Belgian AMORE project.

The SWAMCO model is a complex generic model of the marine planktonic system which aims to produce a most reliable estimation of the export production of major elements (C, N, P, Si, Fe) and the exchange of CO2 and DMS between the ocean and the atmosphere. This model is under development in the scope of the EU-IRONAGES project, the Belgian BELCANTO and Concerted research Action SIBCLIM.

Main publications:
Kirchman, D.L., Lancelot, C., Fasham, M, Legendre, L., Radach, G., Scott, M. (1993). Dissolved organic matter in biogeochemical models of the Ocean. In : Proceedings of the NATO Advanced workshop "Towards a Model of Ocean Biogeochemical Processes". Springer-Verlag Berlin-Heidelberg-New-York-Tokyo. NATO ASI series, vol. 110, 200-225.

Lancelot, C., J. Staneva, D. Van Eeckhout, Beckers, J.M. & Stanev, E. 2002. Modelling the Danube-influenced North-western continental shelf of the Black Sea: II: Ecosystem response to changes in nutrient delivery by the Danube river after its damming in 1972. Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science. 54: 473-499.

Hannon, E., Boyd, P.W., Silvoso, M., & C. Lancelot. 2001. Modeling the bloom evolution and carbon flows during SOIREE: Implications for future in situ iron-enrichments in the southern Ocean. Deep-Sea Research-II 48: 2745-2773.

Lancelot, C., Mathot, S., Owens, N.J.P., 1986. Modelling protein synthesis, a step to an accurate estimate of net primary production : The case of Phaeocystis pouchetii colonies in Belgian coastal waters. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser., 32 : 193-202.

Lancelot C., Hannon E., Becquevort S., Veth C. and H. J. W. de Baar. 2000. Modeling phytoplankton blooms and carbon export production in the Southern Ocean: Dominant controls by light and iron of the Atlantic sector in Autral spring 1992. Deep Sea Research-I, 47 : 1621-1662.

Lancelot, C., V. Rousseau, G. Billen, D. Van Eeckhout, 1997. Coastal eutrophication of the Southern Bight of the North Sea : assessment and modelling. In : "Sensitivity of North Sea, Baltic Sea and Black Sea to anthropogenic and climatic changes". E. Ozsoy & A. Mikaelyan, ed., NATO-ASI series, 2. Environment 27 : 439-454.

Tusseau, M.H., C. Lancelot, J.M. Martin, B. Tassin. 1997 1D-coupled physical-biological model of the NW Mediterranean Sea. Deep Sea Res. II vol. 44 : 851-880.

Van Eeckhout, D., Lancelot, C., 1997. Modelling the functioning of the NW Black Sea from 1960 to present. In : "Sensitivity of North Sea, Baltic Sea and Black Sea to anthropogenic and climatic changes". E. Ozsoy & A. Mikaelyan, ed., NATO-ASI series, 2. Environment 27 : 455-468.